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Exchange cover and the foreign trade surplus opposite direction alteration relation have aroused more and more attention. The exchange cover increase has contained the quadruple factor generally: Value of assessment that active balance , short-term international capital inflow , FDI inflow , exchange rate of US dollar change effect. But, according to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, world economy and the politics research institute put up a report of utensil: Second quarter, Chinese exchange cover increases 177,800,000,000 U. S. dollar.Among them, active balance can make an explanation 34,800,000,000 the U. S. dollar outside stores up only increasing by; FDI can make an explanation 18,300,000,000 the U. S. dollar outside stores up only increasing by; The effect stores the Euro value of assessment to U. S. dollar appreciation up besides being able to make an explanation 33,900,000,000 increasing by; The huge sum being able to not explain 90,800,000,000 U. S. dollar of surplus equally increases all above factor. Then, one is to explain the inflow being short-term international capital rationally more. Though current exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies has still manifested out the stability being commensurate to degree, but stock market the near future and building city prosperity have already let people come into being to the short period international capital turbulent but coming be anxious for: Chinese capital market fears risk difficult to avoid a foam in inside and outside flowability under excessive converging attack , foreign currency takes up  money may lead to a variety of macro-control policy pretty passes emerge once more happened before people’s eyes.

That origin says the exchange cover problem more definite in now available international economy pattern, is the economic pattern unbalance between China and USA. The possibility that the turn up ultimacy changes at present most probably although this the whole world financial crisis having shaken this one pattern to a certain extent,is as trifling as it is. As for USA aspect, the crisis urges USA to defend centering on U. S. dollar international currency system without sparing any effort , the consumption that the supremacy is propped up by U. S. dollar deposits the structure unbalance and the industrial set-ups unbalance to be difficult to become worse; As for Chinese aspect, China has decided the short-term inner in position and economy characteristic in international division of labor expanding domestic demand , the difficulty compressing the foreign trade surplus , improving balance of payments’s has been bigger. Under background, a common view is here: In the upcoming several years, Chinese exchange cover will still display the trend of  rising. The increase of exchange cover swift and violent had once made macro-economic policy be coming out at the elbows in 2007 , this one act, had still been still fresh in memory so far in people’s mind , feasible developed country of epicycle financial crisis economy had suffered a heavy blow , had been the emerging market country but commonly, though China being able to not comply with this crisis middle the whole body but have been withdrawn from , degree has been stricken but being going to be so small that economy keeps much, also as before being increasing by relatively comparatively quickly. Then, the Chinese marketplace attraction comparing with in 2007 , today to international capital also needs much bigger. Then, style has not changed , U.S. dollar devaluation pressure enlarges unceasingly in USA quantity monetary policy loose and comfortable, the exchange cover moment frontage shrinks the rational strategy how to be in progress to gradually ample exchange cover is arranged for under the risk background, is  becoming one big difficult problems swaying before China.

That foreign currency stores structure’s is clearly unreasonable:in today’s foreign exchange reserve,USA government debt has accounted for 40% about ,in May China has once increased the USA government debt having held 38 billion U. S. dollar , USA huge sum budgetary deficit has aggravated in current exchange cover, inflation and the U.S. dollar devaluation risk, this the exchange cover structure being able to be used giving first place to U. S. dollar assets is confronted with the layer-upon-ayer ordeal. But, another aspect , subtraction hold difficulty been confronted with by U. S. dollar assets being also as plain as the nose on one’s face: And and but the USA government debt that first, China holds takes up USA government debt all quantity specific gravity but 6.8%, take up foreign to hold the USA government debt total 24.3% but, USA government debt has exceeded 1/3 in portion in our country exchange cover, to have exceeded GDP 1/6, significance that U. S. dollar assets stores it serves to show to Chinese foreign currency.Based middle gold company chief The Economists ha succeeds the inscription introduction , hold US government debt held by 10% if China cuts , is OK to initiate whose price falling greatly, that 90% government debt assets value that we are left over with so can’t will the maximal necessity being shrunk , being lost prompt is China self. Secondly, many scholars has brought forward USA government debt succedaneum , Bi Ru gold , petroleum, but one , these product marketplace capacities have been less , has been the same as a cup of water for putting out a cartload of fuel on fire to ample exchange cover Er Yan ; And it’s two, keeps difficulty in a storehouse , business is inconvenient , cost is higher, be confronted with the natural losses problem; It’s three, complies with in history , the commodity price fluctuation such as gold , petroleum leads fluctuations in prices over higher than USA bond , is difficult to satisfy exchange cover value stability call for. Then, continue increasing the natural selection holding USA government debt is  being  the China government’s unique  choice.